فعالية السياسة النقدية غير التقليدية وفق متغيرات نموذج كالدور

Abstract

The aim of this study was to measure and analyze the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy using variables from the New Keynesian framework in the US economy for the period between 2008 and 2021. This was achieved by constructing a standard model based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) ethodology to measure the impact between unconventional monetary policy tools and key macroeconomic ndicators such as the magic square role in the short and long term. Additionally, causal relationships in the short and long runs between the independent and dependent variables were estimated using Granger causality and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests. The results obtained from the study confirmed that unconventional onetary policy tools have an impact on both inflation, economic growth, and unemployment in both the short and long term. However, these tools do not have an impact on the balance of payments in both the short and long term. Furthermore, the results of the causality test showed that there is a causal relationship between the zero nterest rate and quantitative easing and both inflation and economic growth in both the short and long term. However, there is no causal relationship between credit easing policy and any of the variables in the New eynesian framework in both the short and long terms. Additionally, there is no causal relationship linking unconventional monetary policy tools to the balance of payments in both the short and long terms.