نمذجة قياسية لمحددات نمو القطاع السياحي

Abstract

Currently, the tourism industry is considered the most important industry because of its significant role in the development and growth of various countries' economies. Therefore, this research aims to demonstrate the determinants of tourism sector growth in a sample of countries during the period 1996-2020, through an econometric, analytical, and comparative study using panel data. Two econometric models were built, the first of which modeled the relationship between tourism growth variables for a sample of leading tourist countries, including France, Spain, Italy, the United States of America, and China and explanatory variables such as institutional environmental quality, trade openness index, and country health system index. The second model models the relationship between tourist growth variables for a sample of developing tourist countries, including Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, and the same explanatory variables that used in the first model. The study found that the determinants of tourism sector growth in the sample of leading countries were last year's tourist growth, trade openness, and the quality of the health system, where the impact of each of these variables had a positive and significant effect on tourist growth. The second model also found a positive and significant effect of last year's tourist growth on the tourist growth of developing countries, while the impact of trade openness and the quality of the health system was not significant for these countries. The study recommended the need to open up space for the private sector, rehabilitation of the human resources, and reduce bureaucratic obstacles.