تحليل العلاقة السببية بين الإئتمان الموجه للقطاع الخاص والنموالإقتصادي

Abstract

This study aimed to empirically test the direction of the causal relationship between private bank credit and economic growth in Algeria over the period (1992-2020), using the Toda_Yamamoto methodology, which is based on the estimation of the autoregressive model developed (Augmented VAR Model), which includes the following variables : The ratio of loans granted to the private sector to total GDP (CSPR_PIB) and the ratio of loans granted to the public sector to total GDP (CSPU_PIB) as independent variables in the model, and economic growth rate (TCPIB) as the dependent variable in the model, in addition to that it was adopted on the joint integration test of Johansen & Juselius) to ensure the existence of a co-integration relationship between the long-term variables, as well as to support the results obtained from the causality test. Based on the results of previous tests, a set of results was achieved, which can be summarized as follows:  The absence of a co-integration relationship between the variables of the long-term study;  The absence of a causal relationship between private bank credit and economic growth in Algeria during the study period;  The existence of a one-way causal relationship that goes from economic growth rates to public bank credit.