أثر الشمول المالي على الإستقرار المالي في عينة من دول MENA

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the impact of financial inclusion on financial stability in a selected sample of countries from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the period 2009–2021. The study relies on a set of indicators reflecting the prevalence of financial services, such as the number of bank branches, the spread of ATMs, online financial services, the penetration of insurance institutions, and the use of financial services like borrowing and depositing in the formal sector, as well as the use of debit cards. The Quantile Regression model was applied, which allows for examining the effects of financial inclusion at different levels of financial stability. The results indicate that an increase in the number of bank branches positively contributes to improving financial stability, particularly in countries with low levels of financial stability. Additionally, the indicator for the prevalence of ATMs has a positive but limited impact, as it enhances confidence in the financial system in countries with normal financial stability, while it had no significant effect in countries with low or high financial stability. As for the spread of online financial services, it was found that its positive effect increases with higher levels of financial stability, highlighting the role of financial technology in supporting the stability of financial markets. On the other hand, the results showed that the penetration of insurance institutions is negatively associated with financial stability, especially in countries with low and medium financial stability. Similarly, the impact of borrowing from the formal sector was heterogeneous, with a weak positive effect in countries with low financial stability, while it was negative in countries with high financial stability. Likewise, the indicator for deposits in the formal sector had a negative impact on financial stability, with this negative effect being more pronounced in countries with medium financial stability compared to others. As for the use of debit cards, it showed a positive effect in countries with low financial stability, as it contributes to reducing cash transactions and enhancing transparency. However, it was associated with a decline in financial stability in countries with medium and high levels of financial stability. These results reflect the heterogeneous nature of the relationship between financial inclusion and financial stability in the MENA region, emphasizing the importance of considering the economic and institutional context when designing policies aimed at promoting financial inclusion without compromising financial stability